Revised data from the Office of National Statistics (ONS) has revealed that the threshold for triggering another driver shortage crisis is lower than its original data shows, writes Carol Millett.
The recently published revised statistics show the driver shortage crisis in 2021/22 was triggered by a 15% drop in driver numbers, rather than the 23% drop reported in the original data – making the possibility of another severe driver shortage much more likely, unless the industry takes immediate action.
The warning comes in Driver Require’s latest report on HGV driver supply, ‘The HGV driver shortage crisis: another crisis on the horizon?’, which crunches the revised ONS statistics.
It points to the original ONS data which suggested a drop in 70,000 drivers would trigger another driver shortage crisis within 12 years. This calculation was based on an estimate of 12,000 retiring each year offset by about 6,000 entrants in the younger age ranges, resulting in an attrition of about 6,000 per year.
However, the revised ONS data suggests a figure of just 45,000 drivers could trigger another driver shortage crisis, which could happen within just seven years.
